Many are also commenting about UP By-election results. It is being touted as drop in BJPs popularity. It may be so but most commentators are over looking the absence of BSP.
In any election every party has support Base based on its ideology or composition. for example those having religious ideas vote for such parties. Parties based on casts have their separate clientèle.
In UP possible combination is Hindu nationalist and businessmen for BJP, MY for SP, M and Dalits for BSP.
There are some converts from one block to another depending on the type of elections and issues of emotions at that time.
Mere absence of BSP from elections means the MD block would split between BJP and SP with majority of them shifting to SP.
To me election results in UP were a surprise if BJP had won major seats. In absence of BSP from By-election the results are on expected lines, a fact that may be confirmed by verifying loksabha election results.
Why did BSP not fight By-elections? Only they know the answer.