Post 18 Sept I said sometimes ago, Wait and Watch - Now The Measures of India are Unfolding

It was exactly 5 days ago when I had said that we the armchair pundits (and warriors) should hold our horses and let the government, who has many options, do thrir job (http://harshad-datar.blogspot.com/2016/09/rabble-rousing-is-national-hobby-but.html). It did predict that many soft options would be used by the government against or westernly neighbours.

 I must concede though that I did not expect hard measure of surgical strike will be unfolded by the government at this speed. Uri Attack happened on 18 Sept and today in exactly 11th day from the attack government used the measure of Surgical Strike in such a short span. In fact, such a measure surely would need at least a week's preparation, a wild guess though and if that is correct guess, the decision was made by the government even before I wrote my last blog on this issue on 24 Sept suggesting to leave the action against the rough neighbour to the government.

In these last 11 days, there has been a blitzkrieg of measures by the government, diplomatic ones (UN and SAARC, Demarches to Pak High commissioner, etc), political ones (Indus Water Treaty) and may be Quasi military (Heightened security). Surgical Strike was always a option but looked unlikely given record of this nation, of being patient (a nice word to disguise the soft approach) for many decades.

This time there were many dots. Some I could join like Pak suddenly cancelling PIA flights to Pak Stolen (why call this part of Kashmir "occupied" when it is actually stolen by them at the height of confusion during partition) Kashmir with increased PAF activity in that area.

Another dot was the PM''s statement that perpetrators of Uri would not go unpunished. Yet another one was DGMOs  public statement that we have capability of surgical strike and we would use it at our time and place of choosing. Frequent meetings of senior ministers with PM and PMs meetings with service chiefs though the reasons were always something else. Something was brewing but I could not join the dots (well I am not a astrologer but just a student of Strategy).

The cat though was out of the bag little earlier than the DGMO press brief. When CCS meeting clippings were shown on TV when DGMO and Army Chief were shown as part of the meeting, it looked that something big has happened. What has happened, could not predict.

Now that Surgical Strike has happened, the game has increased in tempo. Many things can happen, more strikes, escalation or may be deescalation (high hopes!), cooling down and many such things. But normalcy is unlikely for immediate future as our neighbour is unlikely to forget the insult (they think they are martial race and Indians are not) despite they being "so called" ready.

Best that is being done and continued to be done is to make sure that their forces remain on high alert thereby suffering mass movement from western border to this area, fatigue (and there are already signs, in public domain, of their Airforce already in that state) and loss of will. Even it does not happen, the economic cost can not be borne by them.

Let the events unfold but as a nation we should prepare for losses and still maintain unity and not start berating the government. 

Coast Guard and the Burning Boat

In an operation on new year night Coast Guard intercepted a boat which was being tracked for some time using wireless intercepts.  When challenged the boat is said to have tried to evade CG ship and out maneuver it. When CG ship fired gunshots to warn the boat the occupants said to have put boat on fire. Since the CG ship was in the vicinity and it did not see any body jumping off the boat, it is presumed that the occupants also were burnt with the boat which sank.

To me it  sounded like an open and shut case. To my surprise as the time passed, various theories started doing rounds. Some were laughable, some absurd and some were pure political.

Some one said, why navy was not involved? Interesting. First of all the nearest unit is the best unit to  act in such situation. Also patrolling Sea boundary  between India and Pakistan is the charter of CG. Also to handle a small boat as was indicated, a CG ship was fully equipped. They had all the necessary weapons. Why was navy required? Navy is overall incharge of coastal security
but primary execution of the task is done by marine police up to certain distance from the coast followed by CG and finally by the Navy.

Second theory doing round was they were mere smugglers who, when cornered,  set their boat on fire. It is laughable. Are terrorist demons and smugglers saints? Terrorists are a shade worst than smugglers. In any case the laws of our land, based on British jurisprudence are such that simplest for a smuggler is to surrender with or without contraband.  All that would happen to them is they would soon be bailed out and case would go on. So, there is no need for a smuggler to destroy his boat.

If and only if there is a worry that if caught very stringent laws will be applicable and / or it may result in severe embrassment to some powers that be, the need to blow up the boat and self with it arises.

Some one on a TV channel said that the fire looked of diesel fuel. May be,  but I wish the classification was so simple. In any case even explosive fire post explosion would look like any other fire. Also when a boat burns the fuel in its fuel tank is also expected to burn. Poor fuel on-board has no option.

Most absurd that came was from a political party,  that too a major one. One of their first time MP wanted to know why there are no bodies found? It almost sounded as if it is a police investigation of a murder being discussed where finding a victim's body is very important for the case. Did the MP have some police background? Possibly he did not know that as per international laws the CG ship was duty-bound to search for survivors and found none. It is thus presumed that the occupants went down with the boat. The ocean depth in that area may be beyond 50 m or more. The bodies can be recovered only if a operation to takeout the boat from the bottom is done. Even after that action,  the bodies would be all nearly destroyed due  to exposure to sea water as salvage may take a long time.

Finally someone demanded that why the communication intercepts cannot be made public. Well that's governments call to take and also as long as  the intercepts have some useful value they should be kept secret.

I find it funny. When forces don't take action we curse them,  when they take we talk everything including human rights, where is the proof, that they were poor smugglers, etc.

Will we ever stop becoming 'miss doubtfire'  and learn to stand by our forces, Defence as well as police. We need to change and change faster else there will be repeated of various terriost acts yet again. 

Does Pak has any shade of Grey?

The death of innocent people particularly children should shake us up. Our inner self should cry with pain for any death in the hands of extremists of any variety.  The  religion of the victims should never come to our mind.

Our Western neighbour is different. If so called non Muslims get killed by extremists any where in that country or outside by terrorists exported by that country,  it is OK for them. It is very easy in that country  to murder people on mere suspection of that person or persons having  insulted the prophet, no appeal no trial. Even under constitutional provisions there, when there is appeal or trial, in any case, penalty laid down is also death. No one seems to be moved by all such incidences that happen there or in neighbouring countries.

When on the name of Jihad the terrorists explode bombs in India or do 26/11 they are hailed as heroes  simply because those who died did not belong to the narrow definition of  'Muslim' as per that country.

For them all this happening to others is OK and the good terrorists need to be fated and protected. They will have all the comforts in jail and can even father a child while in jail. That nation, in its quest for purity (pun intended) finds  nothing unusual in all those being killed in such incidences as they weren't Muslims as per the narrow definition conveniently coined in that country.

When others get killed,  including their own citizens, adults and children alike, Hazaras,  Ahmadias, Shias,  Christian and Hindus,  there is   no worthwhile reaction. At the best some meek noise condemning the incidence. That is the White end of the spectrum.

On the Black end, when their own snakes created  and nurtured in their own backyard to bite others (borrowed from Hillary Clinton) turn around and bite the creator, all the hell breaks loose. It is only when these homegrown terrorists  kill children, about 141, few days ago at Peshawar, that the black end of the spectrum comes into play. The Army action intensifies.  Some militants are hanged and many more are to be hanged.

Does that nation has any shades of Grey like calibrated response, systemic correction in criminal justice system, detoxifying the text books to remove all the venom, etc? The tragic death of children is most condemnable but if there were shades of gray in that nation's behaviour, things would not have  reached this level.

Even if they had any intermediate response and could gather some sanity, the time has proved that they will get back to their demonstrated obnoxious behaviour sooner than later..They will not change.

The signs are already there to see. Despite such a massive tragedy hitting that nation from which they should have learnt proper lessons, the typical Pak style statements of India being behind the attack ,that they must continue to recognize good and bad Taliban and support good terrorists (how and when a terrorist qualifies to be good terrorist?),  etc have already started emanating.

Anyone dying in the hands of terrorists is unfortunate, children dying, even worst but our Western neighbour have not drawn any lessons from this tragic incidence. Their responses are as sick as they have been. We can only wish them luck and pray that good sense returns to them.