Governance is the Victim of the Drama

It was sometime ago when I wrote about my worry about governance by govt in the state of Delhi.

This govt came to power out of aspirations and hopes of those who were disillusioned with the previous ruling party. Those masses were waiting for spectacular things to happen for betterment of their life.

Spectacular things are happening but in different context. Maruti Altos have all converted to Toyota Innovas. Electricity and water bills in limited cases have come down not by adjustment of tariff or stopping the thefts or leakages but by subsidies.

Nothing wrong in it if finances of govt permits it but that is not the case. Govt has cut the development budget allocation to half to create money for subsidy. It has no money to give to municipalities of North Delhi,  south Delhi , etc.

In all, governance is still awaited. What has the common  man got  (parodixically the ruling party is named after this common man) is daily bickering,  stings, claims and counterclaim, blame game and daily soap opera.

Well, while this happens, the common man (and woman) who so enthusiastically brought them to power is dumb stuck. His dreams seem to be going down the drain.

In this daily edition of soap opera (aka drama) the first victim is Governance which is in a ICU waiting for that urgent dose of Oxygen.

There is still hope but it is fading by each passing  day. 

Congress, BSP loose vote share, BJP looses election, very interesting cause and effect

AAP has won frightening majority. It is their moment of glory and rightfully so. The celebrations on their part is in order.

However, as a student of statistics (and I hated the subject for many years in the early career of mine) I decided to do some math.

A simple analysis of a very simple data made me give the unusual title to my blog. Let me show you that data. See the table below (rounded off to nearest 0.5 value) :-

Party      vote share    vote share  Change
                 2013              2015
BJP             33%              32%              - 1%
Cong          25%              10%              - 15%
BSP            5.5%             1.5%             - 4%
Total loss                                              20%
AAP           29%               54%             +24.5%

Not counting the vote share loss of independents and smaller parties which could amount to the difference between Cong + BSP loss (and also 1% loss of BJP) and AAPs gain, the data is clear, AAP has gained on the cost of loss of Voter confidence on these two parties.

My Inferences are as under:-

- AAP has gained votes not on the cost of BJP but it is own the cost of Cong and BSP.

- BJP's loyal Voter has stayed with it.

- AAP's landslide victory is real but may not be due  to unpopularity of BJP. It is primarily due to irrelevance of Cong and BSP (63 of Cong candidates have lost their deposits, imagine the residual relevance of a national party).

- Despite having their vote share intact even BJP looks irrelevant as 32% vote share has translated in to just 3 out of 70 seats.

- BJP needs to follow basic principle of marketing, retain old loyal voters but garner newer voters rapidly, unless it can device division of votes among other parties.

- Sheer size of AAPs Legislature party indicates chances of management challenges.

Many other possibilities may be there but as of now these inferences look adequate.

AAP at helm in Delhi. They need to deliver

I am at it again. AAP has won Delhi. It is not simple win,  it is a win of a magnitude which has not only surpassed all exit polls (so the pollsters need to refine their model), it actually surpassed (and may be surprised) the AAPs own estimate.

While the euphoria in AAP camp is justified and would last for some time, the magnitude of win should really worry AAP. The faith of people is absolute and thus any failure on AAPs part will be beyond redemption.

Promises can capture people's imigation, particularly those who are downtrodden and desperate. They put faith in those promises and vote. Generally promises are forgotten soon. But in this case if that happens, it is the masses that would be crestfallen.

Beyond euphoria is what lies for AAP. It is the deliverance on promises like 50 % fall in electrical n water bills,  Jan Lokmat etc.

If they don't the frail heart of millions of poor who put faith on AAP will be broken. AAP,  please walk the talk,  please, please for the sake of those who have put everything in what you promised. Amen.

PS -  With the decimation of BJP in Delhi, it is time for them also to walk the talk at centre if they have to gain relevance. 

Curious Case of Govt Formation in Delhi

The state of Delhi is without an elected government since Feb 14. Kejariwal forming govt with support of Congress, the very party he accused of all through his campaign and then resigning on very flimsy grounds (as such his govt would have fallen out of sheer weight of the contradictions is another story) was already very confusing to people of Delhi.

If he was to resign so fast then why did he form a govt? A big unanswered question. May be a sudden success in Delhi, which gave him unexpected results, made him very ambitious to try his luck for Loksabha elections or may be he realised that governance is beyond him (to agitate at the drop of the hat and to govern are very different things).

That is not the subject of this blog post. Subject is curious case of govt formation in Delhi. One good thing out of Political Samudra Manthan (churning) that is happening in India is, days of Aaya Ram - Gaya Ram (Political Turncoats) are over. As in Samudra Manthan, when good comes out, Bad also comes out of any churning. The bad part also is, the days of Aaya Ram - Gaya Ram are over. This is funny?

Let me explain. When Turncoats shamelessly changed parties, at least there was a possibility that in situation like Delhi, a government would have been formed. In fact smart people found a way around anti defection law when it was brought in. How many turncoats BJP needed, just four (with 32 of their own MLAs)? With the turncoats, BJP would have formed the govt and because their number would have been only 4, it was possible to keep them under check.. However, as mentioned earlier, the political churning has resulted in elected representatives being very fearful of quitting a party from which they have been elected least moralistic new voter junks them in the next election.

Also in the new wave of political correctness, even BJP is wary of forming a government with the help of Turncoats. And what is their worry? Same as the worry of elected representative about leaving one party and joining other. If BJP forms a govt by maneuvering, they are sure to been seen a immoral party and the defeat in the next election is feared.

It was evident from the day of election result that none can form a govt. Despite that AAP tried their hand and burnt it. Why is the assembly not being devolved and fresh elections ordered. BJP was just waiting to consolidate and they have done so by way of big wins in Maharashtra and Haryana. They were marginally short of full majority in the last elections in Delhi, this time with the victory in these two states, they are certain of full majority,

The suspense is likely to be over soon and Delhi will have re-election. That would happen for the reasons mentioned above and not because of antics of the Shoot and Scoot man of Delhi or even SC observations.

The correctness or otherwise of this statement is not far to verify.It is just matter of two odd months and I would peg the probability of the statement above being true to 85 %. The signs are here to see.