Uri, The Movie

Uri Surgical Strike was unique for few reasons, they are-

 - It was first deep inside action across LOC. I am sure, regular behind enemy line actions must be happening regularly but deep inside action on a guarded border during peacetime must be the first one.

- While similar action was carried out in North East deep inside Burmese Territory, that strike was (probably) with consent from the Burmese government.

A senior defence correspondent and Analysist, Nitin Gokhale has covered this and other security-related events of last 5 years of  Modi government in his book titled, "Securing India The Modi Way: Pathankot, Surgical Strikes and More" where curious people can find additional details.

Coming back to the movie, the first thing that comes to the mind is, it is a gripping movie. There are no dull moments. Secondly, while the director has taken many artistic liberties, this move is very realistic in its plot eg the rank badges of Army people (actors) and the medals and ribbons are close to reality, the terminology used in talking is a copy of "Fauji" terminology.

The narration is also of a different style with each event being narrated is called a chapter. The movie opens with the attack that happened on an Army convoy in the northeast and the retaliatory commando strike carried out inside Myanmar (with tacit understanding with Myanmar government). 

The narration further builds up slowly to the attack by terrorists on pathankot IAF Base and then on to the surgical strikes carried out by Special Forces deep inside POK.

The actors have been chosen carefully to fit into the role of commando officers and men. Both the actresses have a very small role but their roles seem to contribute to the theme of the movie.

Does that mean everything has been depicted correctly? No, because its a movie meant to entertain the people. But the movie is as close as it could get to reality. This movie has not made a joke out of the Army people, their rank badges, mannerism, etc

My recommendation is, go out to a theatre and watch this movie. You will enjoy it.

Sinking Economy of Pakistan and its likely impact on India

   Pakistan has many internal and external problem. Its citizens are getting killed by terrorists of all hues. Baluchistan is fighting for its freedom for many years. Pak Occupied Kashmir and Sindh are fed up with oppression by the federal government. Fundamentalists dream of Sharia Rule in Pakistan and Final Battle for India, so-called “Gajwa e Hind”. However, that is not being discussed in this article. This article discusses a very vital aspect of a nation that can destroy it without a single shot being fired, that aspect is Economy. The Sinking Economy of Pakistan and its likely impact on India is the main thrust of this article.

   There are some parameters and their present values which are important for every economy. The current figures of these parameters indicate the state of that economy. It is important to understand these values and its implications to understand where is that economy heading. These important parameters are Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Balance of Payment and Current Account Deficit.  Let us examine these parameters of Pakistan Economy.

   It is interesting to note that post-independence, Pakistani Economy was better than the Indian Economy as they had opted for the free market economy while India followed the path of Socialist-Communist kind of state-controlled economy. Things have changed over the years. India has become an important and powerful economy while Pakistan Economy has weakened owing to lack of large Industries, Wrong policies and unnecessary military competition (and 4 wars) with India. The weakening economy should have made Pakistan worried but the non-stop American aid on one or the other pretext (without any need of accounting for it) continued to help Pakistani economy and that resulted into a false sense of economic well being.

   Every nation runs itself (and its government) on the income it earns from the exports, investments abroad and its internal direct and indirect tax collection (just 1 % of Pak citizens pay Income Tax). It is true for most of the nations but not for Pakistan. The collection of Direct and Indirect taxes is meagre in Pakistan and their imports outstrip export by a huge ratio. Due to the inflow of American aid, Pakistan never felt any need to increase internal accruals despite such a dismal collection of taxes.

   With this primer on Pakistan Economy, let me analyse its present position. The growth rate of GDP of Pakistan is 5.7% which is the best in the last five years (it was f5.3 % last year and is forecasted to drop the next year). A good growth rate of GDP indicates that this economy is a  good economy but only and only if other vital indicators (as mentioned above) also corroborate the trends. Analysis of other parameters does indicate that all is not well with Pakistani Economy. It will be further elaborated in the next paragraphs.

   The internal and external income of Pakistan is low. Few efforts have been made in the last few years to improve internal income without much success. The only other source they had of income was American unrestricted aid. That has also stopped due to direct and indirect support that Pakistan gives to the terrorist.

   Another major aspect of any economy apart from the GDP growth figure is Balance of Payment. BOP is the annual account of a country’s trade with other countries. It also indicates the availability of World (trading ) currencies with a nation or lack of it. If a nation is doing more export than import they have surplus Forex and if the imports are more than exports, there is a dearth of Forex with that country. The Balance of Payment, as the name suggests, is supposed to be balanced but it generally does not happen automatically.

  To balance BOP, if a nation has surplus earnings from exports, those earnings are retained as Forex Reserves and if there is a shortage of Forex due to higher imports, that country needs to obtain Forex by other means like Loans, etc. The question is, is the BOP of Pakistan satisfactory? Not really. Their imports outstrip their Exports by a huge margin and thus there BOP is not healthy. They have been surviving using external loans and they are neck deep in the loans. There  Forex Reserve is playing a game of See-Saw. When Asian Development Bank or China gives a loan, Forex Reserves of Pakistan go up and then they use it for Import and the Forex Reserve drops.

   Pakistan’s Balance of Payment is in negative, Forex Reserves are in the doldrums. They must be recalling olden days when” Uncle Sam” used to give unlimited aid with no strings attached and must be thinking, “those were the days”.

   If the world had faith in Pakistan they would have invested into Story of Pakistan and Pakistan’s Forex Reserves would have swollen with inflow from Foreign Direct Investment but that is Pakistan and not India in whom investors have confidence. No one wants to invest there. The remittances by Pakistani Diaspora are also nothing to write home about. In simple words, Pakistan is neither earning Forex by commerce nor by remittances and they have no other way except for taking loans to get any Forex.

   Pakistan’s Current Account Deficit (CAD) is unbelievably high. It has gone up from $ 12 Billion in 2017 to $ 17 Billion in the current year. The dichotomy is, they don’t have money for imports worth 3 weeks of necessities but the import of luxury cars continues unchecked.

Pakistan had recently received a loan of $ 2 billion from China but that amount is inadequate for them. Their only hope is an IMF bailout but America has warned IMF from advancing to Pakistan as America feels that Pakistan would use the IMF advance to pay back China. There are no signs of improvement in Pakistani economy in foreseeable future. This is the biggest challenge facing the new government of Pakistan. The question that begs answer is, what are the implications of worsening economic situation of Pakistan for India?

   Raison d’etre of Pakistan’s existence is opposing and hating India. It is a very difficult task to check the economic slide whereas it is easy to give a dose of Anti India sentiments to their population and fool them. After all the Pak governments and the Pak Army has been doing this for decades. Despite economic difficulties and a shortage of Forex, the anti-India activities by Pakistan are likely to go up and so are the terrorist activities at the border and in the countryside of India. In these trying times that is the only and time-tested method  Pakistan government has to keep their folks together.

   In light of the above, India needs to be extra alert because what will this unpredictable nation do is difficult to predict. As such it is easy to distract its own citizens from worsening economic situation by fanning the Anti- India sentiments rather than taking and implementing tough decisions to improve their sinking economy.

Effect of Imran Khan’s Win on India

The elections for Pakistan National Assembly are over and Imran Khan’s Pakistan Taharik E Insaf (PTA) party is the largest party in PNA. This election was marred in controversy and the role and interference of Pakistan Army were and have been questioned.

It is said that Politics is the “Art of Making Impossible into Possible”, however, such things do not apply to Pakistan. In Pakistan, it is what the Army of Pakistan desires becomes possible. Naila Inayat, a media person from Pakistan had tweeted way back on 27 May 2018 as follows:-

Naila Inayat

✔@nailainayat

Elections will be held on July 25. Imran Khan will become the next PM of Pakistan and how:

1:00 AM - May 27, 2018

Naila is a media Person and not an Astrologer but she could predict this because there was nothing new to predict. It was well known that come what may, Pakistan Army will make sure that Imran becomes Prime Minister. To say that this is the first time in the history of Pakistan that power transfer between two  Civilian governments will take place is a fallacy because as usual, the civilian government of Pakistan has been the Civilised Mask of the Pakistan Army and this time (In Imran’s victory) that is profoundly known.

Imran Khan is an ex-cricketer and an Oxford-educated person. With this background, as expected, at the start of his political career he appeared to be a balanced and liberal politician. However, with passing time his views have been changing and at present he appears to be a fundamentalist, supporter of the imposition of strict Sharia law in Pakistan and someone who is hardliner towards India. Has he actually become hardliner and fundamentalist or it's just a façade to garner the support of Pakistani Army and Mullas to grab the power can only be told at a later date.

Imran Khan, having smelled the Power has been making all the right noises about India Pakistan Relations. These utterances are positive at this moment but early utterances of him alone are not adequate to gauge the actual response of the new government towards India. It seems a positive start but how much he and his government can do in coalition politics (he does not have a simple majority) that too under the shadow of the actual taskmaster, the Pakistan Army, cannot be predictable.

 Many thinkers in India are of the view that Imran Khan’s rise is a bad omen for India. They believe that his win is going to compound India’s difficulties. Imran Khan’s pre-poll hardline attitude and anti-India rant could be the possible reason for their belief.

It is not possible to predict as to how would new regime be for India and our thinkers may be right that his rise is bad for India, however, there is another angle independent from Imran Khan’s rise that must be considered. That angle is, for last many decades, it’s the Pakistan Army who is ruling the roost. It makes no difference as to who is the Prime Minister or whether that nation is under Marshal Law, it’s the writ of Pakistani Army that alone runs in Pakistan.

The civilian government stays in power as long as it tows the Army’s line and when that does not happen, Pak Army finds ways and means to get rid of that government. In the heart of the matter is the power that Pakistani army wields and the Industry – Economic activities that it controls. There is a whole book written by Aaisha Siddiki titled “ Military Inc, Inside Pakistans Military Economy” devoted to documenting these deeds. If Pak Army lets go the power, it would mean the loss of all those business empires and they can’t afford that. The actual power would be wielded by Pak Army even after Imran becomes Prime Minister.

India was always in a dilemma when Nawaz Sharif was in power. A sovereign government is supposed to talk to another sovereign government and cannot talk to the that nation’s Army. Every time when it was felt that relations between India and Pakistan are making positive progress, the Pak Army and ISI used to engineer an attack or terrorist activity in India and the dialogue used to fizzle out.

The India Pakistan Relations are likely to remain at the same rock-bottom level even after Imran Khan becomes Prime Minister. There is no level lower than rock bottom. A hardliner Imran would make Pakistani population’s life miserable but his becoming Prime Minister is not likely to have any adverse impact on already adverse relations between India and Pakistan. 

If he succeeds in inducing Change of Heart in Pak Army, the relations might just improve for better but any further downfall of relations is unlikely. It may be possible that with he in power and having the same ideas as Pak Army, terrorist activities may see an increase on Indian soil but we have over three decades of experience of sending those terrorists to meet the final arbitrator, the God almighty and India is ready to deal with it.

पाकिस्तान को मुहतोड जवाब - Rabble Rousing is National Hobby but Leave the Action to the Government

I remember it vividly.During hijack of IC 814, the Vajpayee govt could not exercise any option but to release the terrorist, primarily because of chest beating (literally and figuratively) of friends and relatives of the passengers in front of every forum including PM house. I grant it to them that emotional response is expected but such massive public demonstration of such emotions brought the govt to one single option.

The other spectrum is every (armchair) expert is talking about surgical strike, as if that is very easy and simple option. Some others talk of this nation learning from Israel, really? Do we as citizens are anywhere near Israeli citizens? Do we have that kind of emotional response, control and will to sacrifice. Israel has had "No negotiation with terrorists" policy. Their countless citizens have died but the nation stood with their government.

We have seen the spectacle many times in the past and recent past where the government is hauled on coals for something where perpetrators should actually be kicked hard. Remember JNU? "Bharat Tere Tukade Honge" was not anti national for a select class for whom it was freedom of expression.

Pallet guns were a effective method of control of unruly crowd. Yes it is true that some innocent did suffer but most were not innocent. But for the pallet Guns, many would have died by bullets of normal guns. More importantly these guns are used by police and CMPF whose charter is crowd control. Not only they were castigated even pretensions were made that it is army that uses it and AFSPA should be removed. That is when most people saying so were doing so under the shelter of the lap of same police. And of course, the usual suspects across India were always there to support that section. Today then say they are with army and revenge must be taken. Massive change of heart looks like.

Some people say they will live without onions or every thing else but we must fight a war. Let onion price reach Rs 50 per kg when it is off season( when new crops are yet to mature to reach market) and see the fun. Within no time there will demonstrations and "hi - hi" all over the country, this does not matter  that this seasonal phenomenon is every year occurrence.

Many are talking of Army action as if it is game of "Chor - Sipahi" that we used to play in the childhood. Army action is a action by a nation, supposedly taken when all else fails. If that is done, most will stand by the government but some (read my blog Vultures and the Blank Cheque) would still demonstrate, even if very few cities are bombed by the other nation in retaliation.

We are a sheer emotional nation and while dams on the Indian rivers may hold lot of water, our emotional dams burst at the smallest opportunity. Sometimes in favour of the government and most times against it.

Does that mean I recommend usual restraints which have been hallmark of the nation and a very beloved virtue of Mahatama Gandhi who stretched Amhinsa to a unrealistic level. May be a Saint like him could follow those ideals but it is not expected to be followed in state craft..

I do not recommend restrains. All I recommend is leave the government on its own. They have many options other than military (remember, it is said that military is the last option). They may be soft options, diplomatic options, direct actions or many more other options. They are also thinking like all of us but the difference is they are well informed about situation and options (and the consequences of them) unlike us who are expert in everything without adequate inputs and resource.

Haven't we routinely advised Tendulkar or Sehwag or Nadal, sitting opposite TV screens, how to take a shot or play a ball, etc. It is alright to do so there but this is a different matter. Leave it to government. Stay calm. If one is too keen to know what is being done (impossible to know everything) watch news space,, Indian and the neighbour's, for few months to come.We would never know even partially though but there may be some "crumbs" of information or dots which may or may not connect into a big picture. But that is the statecraft I guess.  Remember the Big Stick policy also called U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt’s foreign policy of "speak softly, and carry a big stick". We have been talking softly thus far and as big stick, I guess we have many of them of all kinds..

Wait and watch. One thing we can surely do. Pray for our Brave Soldiers, (who have lost their lives in this attack) families  and second thing is wait and watch please.

Musharraf and His "Foot in Mouth" Disease

Musharraf is a retired General, Ex President of Pakistan and presently an under-trial in that country. Long tenure as a self imposed president of that nation has given wings to his political ambitions (why live retired life when you can have all the fun as politician).

There is also the issue of remaining relevant. There are two ways to stay relevant, either do something spectacular for people or do something that is controversial. Look around in that nation or read Dawn of any day online and one realises that there is so much to do there but it calls for lot of hard work. Hard work does not seem to be the fashion of the day in Pak.

The politicians in that country have a even better option. Talk any thing about Kashmir or India (mostly nonsense) and you are an instant hit. Hating us is the raison d'etre for Pakistan. It is also fashionable there. So you have Bilawal Jardari (who pretends that he is Bhutto to derive mileage) taking in a shrill voice about doing something that his grand pa wanted to do even if they have to eat grass and even if it takes 1000 years (will Pak exists that far is any body's guess, India will in some form or the other as we have been for generations). I could only say God forgive him because he does not know what he is talking.

But the cake has been taken by irrelevant, out of circulation and reinventing politician called Musharraf who has come up with a idea of instigating Kashmiris in India to revolt (and what happens if Kashmiris in POK revolt paying heed to Musharraf). The man should have at least come up with original idea.

Pakistan tried exactly the same stunt in 1965 by launching Operation Gibraltar to do exactly the same thing that Musharraf now proposes, instigate Kashmiris to revolt and failed miserably. About fifty years post 1965, here is a man who has not learned any thing. Seems he has not heard that those who do not learn from history become history sooner than later. May be his 'Foot in Mouth' Disease has aggravated.

For readers benefit, I quote from Wikipedia, "This conflict became known as the Second Kashmir War and was fought by India and Pakistan over the disputed region of Kashmir, the first having been fought in 1947. The war began following Pakistan's Operation Gibraltar, which was designed to infiltrate forces into Jammu and Kashmir to precipitate an insurgency against rule by India.^[16] The five-month war caused thousands of casualties on both sides. It ended in a United Nations (UN) mandated ceasefire and the subsequent issuance of the Tashkent Declaration".

If only Musharraf had told us Indians with a wink that he is doing all this for his domestic audience, our reaction might have been different. But for now we can only say Get well soon.