Tuesday, December 30, 2014

The Jig Saw Puzzle of J & K, getting interesting by the day

The elections in the state of J & K threw in a result that has improved mathematical skills of Politicians. After the result it has emerged that BJP has nearly the same seats as PDP(25 BJP vs 28 PDP). Congress has won nearly same seats as NC (12 of congress vs 15 of NC). Smaller parties won 3 seats with 3 seats going to independents.

It looks that NC and Congress cannot come together as also NC and PDP (Arch opponents) can not see eye to eye. As for BJP & Congress, can they come together? Unlikely and also does not help as, to rule J & K, the combination thus formed needs 44 seats. Can PDP and BJP come with each other and form a government? They are actually as different as Cheese and Chalk or Day and Night but one never knows.

How did the events go? NC offered support to PDP but PDP refused. PDP started seeing virtues in BJP but there are contentious issues between them like Article 370, AFSPA, etc. All the confusion at its best.

Lets look at mathematics. Combo 1 - PDP + BJP = 53. Combo 2 - PDP + NC= 42 (majority needs two more MLAs). Combo 3 - PDP + NC + Independents or smaller parties or both = 45, 45, 48.

If the first combination (BJP + PDP) rules, there will be representation from all the three regions namely, Jammu, Kashmir and Laddakh. However if third combination comes to power Jammu region representation will mostly be in opposition (BJP has won 25 out of 37 seats in the region).

What is likely to happen? Let us look at party aspirations. BJP definite wants to be in power in J & K but it needs a partner. It is their first ever chance to rule this state, even if in coalition. NC and PDP also want to rule and can not do so with out a partner. NC is used to power and finds it hard to let go of it while PDP wants to come back. In this whole game Congress looks 'down and out' but you never know what surprise they may spring.

The history of J  & K is replete with corrupt and inept governments. It is important to remember that the state was mostly ruled by either NC or PDP with sometimes it was congress rule, the congress was, however, in power as coalition partner most of the time. That means they have been rarely out of power.

It is as confusing as it gets. In my opinion the combo 3 has bright chance. That will help both PDP & NC perpetuate their regime, help them keep their deeds (or misdeeds) of many years under wrap, keep them in power and most importantly they can keep a non Muslim BJP out of power. This also will kill their fear of getting a Hindu CM. It may be true that PDP has seen virtues in BJP off late but risks of going with BJP (for PDP) may be more than they can take,

There seems to be no way out for political parties mainly PDP and NC but to bury their past differences and come together else one of them will be out of power, something, they both can ill afford. A rule by BJP in some combination? Looks unlikely but then politics has its second name called 'Possibility'. The last word on government formation in J & K is yet to be spoken.

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