Thursday, September 29, 2016

Post 18 Sept I said sometimes ago, Wait and Watch - Now The Measures of India are Unfolding

It was exactly 5 days ago when I had said that we the armchair pundits (and warriors) should hold our horses and let the government, who has many options, do thrir job ( It did predict that many soft options would be used by the government against or westernly neighbours.

 I must concede though that I did not expect hard measure of surgical strike will be unfolded by the government at this speed. Uri Attack happened on 18 Sept and today in exactly 11th day from the attack government used the measure of Surgical Strike in such a short span. In fact, such a measure surely would need at least a week's preparation, a wild guess though and if that is correct guess, the decision was made by the government even before I wrote my last blog on this issue on 24 Sept suggesting to leave the action against the rough neighbour to the government.

In these last 11 days, there has been a blitzkrieg of measures by the government, diplomatic ones (UN and SAARC, Demarches to Pak High commissioner, etc), political ones (Indus Water Treaty) and may be Quasi military (Heightened security). Surgical Strike was always a option but looked unlikely given record of this nation, of being patient (a nice word to disguise the soft approach) for many decades.

This time there were many dots. Some I could join like Pak suddenly cancelling PIA flights to Pak Stolen (why call this part of Kashmir "occupied" when it is actually stolen by them at the height of confusion during partition) Kashmir with increased PAF activity in that area.

Another dot was the PM''s statement that perpetrators of Uri would not go unpunished. Yet another one was DGMOs  public statement that we have capability of surgical strike and we would use it at our time and place of choosing. Frequent meetings of senior ministers with PM and PMs meetings with service chiefs though the reasons were always something else. Something was brewing but I could not join the dots (well I am not a astrologer but just a student of Strategy).

The cat though was out of the bag little earlier than the DGMO press brief. When CCS meeting clippings were shown on TV when DGMO and Army Chief were shown as part of the meeting, it looked that something big has happened. What has happened, could not predict.

Now that Surgical Strike has happened, the game has increased in tempo. Many things can happen, more strikes, escalation or may be deescalation (high hopes!), cooling down and many such things. But normalcy is unlikely for immediate future as our neighbour is unlikely to forget the insult (they think they are martial race and Indians are not) despite they being "so called" ready.

Best that is being done and continued to be done is to make sure that their forces remain on high alert thereby suffering mass movement from western border to this area, fatigue (and there are already signs, in public domain, of their Airforce already in that state) and loss of will. Even it does not happen, the economic cost can not be borne by them.

Let the events unfold but as a nation we should prepare for losses and still maintain unity and not start berating the government. 

1 comment: