Thursday, October 6, 2016

Is it a Right Time to De-escalate for Short Time on our Western Side?

The western neighbour's national scenario is extremely heated at the moment. The government in civilian cloths seems to have followed the brief of Big Brother in uniform (de facto government) on all platforms, international or national, to internationalise Kashmir and discredit India,with no visible or demonstrable results.

In fact the Civilian Gove seems like a person stuck in quick sand, more it tries to come out, more it sinks. More the Civilian govt followed the Big Brother, more rapid and wide spread isolation of the nation happened (except our northern - eastern neighbour, in whose interest, supporting this nation suits).

Their government looked perturbed but not the Big Brother. Big Brother was sitting pretty with the knowledge that what has not happened after 1971 is not likely to happen at all ever after any event that they engineer in India with their stooges. In his thinking, their eastern neighbour is a "Baniya Country" incapable of doing any thing unless it is a full scale war. With his position fully secured in this belief, Big Brother had no worries about international isolation of the civilian  government and the nation. For him, as long as his bidding was done, why bother about nation, even if it happens to be his own.

It all changed with the surgical Strike of 29 Sept. The "Strike that wasn't" as far as the Big Brother and his HMV (His Master's Voice, the Civilian Govt) were concerned. To their glee, Surgical strike had not happened for some of the worthy (really?) Indian politicians too . Strike or no strike (depends on which side of the border or which political affiliation  (in India) one belonged), the result of those strikes are all over to see.

The Big brother is shaken up to the core. His proteges the LeT etc are just trying to come to some Army camp in Kashmir, fire some bullets and pretend that "well we are alive and kicking" to not to accept that the unthinkable has happened. The Indians have responded very strongly and reduced their cadres in one swift operation which can as well be repeated. Their government response and utterances are all confused, if they accept, Big Brother would be angry and if they don't the world would laugh on them..

At this time the news comes of a showdown between civilian government and the Big Brother ( The danger? Every time this happens in that nation, the big brother feels offended, "how come the non faujis have guts to question us"  and a military coup happens. This time under American recently passed law of "no aid if Military coup happens there", there may not be explicit coup but the PM of Pak  and his government may get replaced by some other civilian government.

Has the time come  that we take a pause, de-escalate for short time and then go full speed ahead. At least the civilian government of the day will be saved from a replacement and the big brother may loose some clout. The rest of the clout of the Big Brother within that nation can be cut in installment after the small phase of de-escalation, resulting in slow tilting of balance of power in favour of civilian government in that country.

That will be aided also by existing power struggle (as reported) between PM Sharif, Senior (COAS) Sharif who seems eager for extension of service and Junior Sharif (another general who eyes COAS post, if and only if, senior Sharif retires on time). The Punjab CM Sharif also may be a wild card in this struggle. Good for us.

Will that be in our interest? That is for our strategists to think but de-escalation may a step, whose time has come, mostly for short time, in days to come.

Also read my previous related posts here

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