Strategic Impact of Kra Canal on India – An Analysis

Index

-        Where is the Kra Isthmus?

-        Kra Canal, an Old Idea.

-        Comparing the Kra Canal with Malacca Strait.

-        Cost-Benefit Analysis of Kra Canal.

-        The Reasons for the Revival of “old idea in the new bottle”.

-        Questions around the Kra Canal Project.

-        Will China have Strategic Advantage over India if the Kra Canal is constructed?

-        Conclusion.

Where is the Kar Isthmus?

Kar Isthmus is a land mass jutting into the Bay of Bengal. Most part of it belongs to  Thailand. The shortest distance across the Kra Isthmus (the width at narrowest point) is about 44 km. The Andaman Sea is to its west and the Gulf of Thailand is to its east.

Kra Isthmus

If we compare the physical location of Kra Isthmus with respect to Indian and Chinese major Naval Bases, it is about 700 km east of Port Blair and over 2400 km south west of the nearest Chinese port of Guangzhou through nautical route and also over the land route (as measured on Google maps). Kra Isthmus is a good location for a Canal to connect the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand.

Kra Canal, an old Idea.

The idea of a canal across Kra Isthmus has been an old one. This idea was considered for the first time in the year 1677 AD when a French engineer De Lamar carried out a study on the orders of King of Thailand. Another study was carried out by the engineer who made the Suez canal in the year 1882. Nothing much came out at the end of these studies primarily due to the limitation of cost and resources.

Likely Sape and Location of Kra Cana;

Comparing the Kra Canal with Malacca Strait.

To give a comparison, the Malacca Strait, a waterway that would be substituted by this canal is the world’s busiest waterway and at the narrowest point, its width is 2.5 kilometre.  It is obvious that the canal width of 500 m in the bottom may be grossly insufficient unless it follows “One Way convoy” system followed in Suez canal but then there is no place available similar to Great Bitter Lake for holding a convey going in a direction at anchorage till the through convey going in the other direction is allowed to transit.

Comparison of Route through Kra Canal (Proposed) and Malacca Strait

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Kra Canal.

The expected investment of 25 billion US dollars would result in saving of only 1200 Nautical Miles. To understand the distance saving benefits, while this canal would save 1200 Nautical Miles, Suez Canal saves a distance of 6400 Nautical miles and Panama Canal saves 7800 Nautical Miles. The distance saving that would accrue if Kra Canal is built looks meagre in comparison to the other two major canal systems.

As stated earlier, this idea is as old as the idea of the Suez Canal, if not older. The length of the canal is also shorter than Suez (about 193 km). It is expected to be anywhere between 50 to 100 km (actual length would be known if and when the final design is made). The moot question then that comes to the mind is, why has this not been made in over 3 centuries.

When Suez canal could be constructed in the year 1869 and the Panama Canal in the year 1914, why was Kra overlooked for 3 centuries? The reason is simple, if the economic advantages had outweighed the costs, this canal would have been made at least a century ago. Since there was already a natural waterway available to navigate from the Andaman Sea to the South China Sea through Strait of Mallaca, the costs of Kra Canal viz a viz the reduction of just 1200 NM distance for navigation made Kra an idea whose time had not come. It must be remembered that Suez and Panama Canals were made to create new routes of much shorter distance while in case of Kra canal idea, Mallaca strait existed, much wider compared to expected width of Kra canal.

The Reasons for the Revival of “old idea in the new bottle”.

The canal project was revived again by the Chinese under their Belt and Roads initiative (BRI) also known as One Belt One Road (OBOR) and the proposal by Thailand in 2007 but nothing much happened for the next few years till major Chinese construction companies took renewed interest in this project[1] in the year 2014 according to Chinese newspaper reports of that time. This renewed Chinese interest in the Kra Canal may convert this idea to reality in years to come.

This is conditional to the Chinese economy keeping pace with Chinese ambitions. China wants to open up this new waterway with an intention of having a shorter route from the South China Sea to the Andaman Sea. This route entails a saving of just 1200 NM distance, with the Chinese energy and raw material need, the amount of shipping that heads to China, this saving gets accumulated as a big saving.

Questions around the Kra Canal Project.

As per reports available in public domain, if the canal has to take the ships of 500000 DWT, it will have to be 33 m in depth, at least 500 m in width (in the bottom) for two-lane traffic. Those who know the sea also know that the minimum width mentioned earlier is too tight a space for navigation

There are many questions which are unanswered. Some of them are

-        Impact of this canal on the ecosystem of the area. There seem to be no study carried out on the impact of this canal on the ecology of the area and on the life of coastal people and inland people, who were landlocked for many centuries and who now will suddenly find the waterway with major shipping passing through in their midst.

-        The question of Marine Pollution caused by the high volume shipping and its impact on the marine life in SCS and Northan Andaman sea is unassessed. Such impact may adversely affect the livelihood of the fishermen of the area

-        There is also a question of sudden physical barrier getting created by Kra Canal between mainland Thailand and the resistive south Kra Peninsula. This area is dominated by Malay Muslims and once the canal is made, Thailand may find maintaining control over the resistive southern area of Kar Isthmus.

Will China have Strategic Advantage over India if the Kra Canal is constructed?

Some thinkers have added a strategic dimension to the Kra Canal. In their view, this canal will provide a strategic advantage to China, of reaching the Indian Ocean faster as this will help the Chinese Navy deploy its ships and submarines faster in the Indian Ocean region. Prima Facie they may seem correct. The Indian Ocean has been free of the Chinese Navy for a very long time. That has changed in the last few years. With Kra Canal operationalized in the next ten years or so will result in the increased presence of the Chinese in the Indian Ocean.

The analysis, however, indicates that the following points provide a counter to this “Kra Canal would provide Strategic Advantage to China” narrative:-

(a)    China has many more disputes with its neighbours in the South China Sea and most of the Chinese Navy is likely to be deployed in SCS rather than the Indian Ocean.

(b)   India has the capability to track all conventional Submarines in the Indan Ocean Region even if they transit through the Kra Canal and not Mallaca strait.

(c)    Under UNCLOS Indian Navy also enjoys “Right to Innocent Passage” through this canal and hence it would also be able to deploy faster into the South China Sea.

(d)   Kra Canal being purely in the sovereign territory of Thailand, if Thailand stays neutral, it will not allow military use of the canal to any party in case of conflict between India and China.

(e)    If Thailand cannot exercise control over the Kra canal, it is easy for Indian forces to interdict any shipping including Chinese shipping heading in or out of the Kra Canal, if and when needed.

(f)     Andaman Sea end of Kra canal opens into the backyard of India. With ANC straddling the Andaman Sea, Blocking a narrow waterway of the kind of Kra canal, either at the entry point in the Andaman Sea or the canal itself will ensure long term unavailability of the canal for any use, let alone the military use.

It can thus be concluded that Kra Canal would either be strategically neutral to both India and China or if it is strategically advantageous, it would be to India as its location is closure to India and Andamans guard that area.

Conclusion.

The Mallaca Strait carried 94000 ships in the year 2008. This strait is likely to be saturated for shipping by the year 2024 when the shipping density will cross 122640 ships transiting Mallaca Strait per year[2]. Kra canal is likely to provide an alternate route to Malacca Strait to the world shipping in general and to Chinese shipping in particular.

However, reading too much into the Strategic Advantage of Kra for China does not stand scrutiny. Even with Kar being operational India will continue to have upper hand in the Indian Ocean and it has the capability to control and choke the Indian Ocean as required. Chinese Nuclear Submarines alone will be added difficulty for the Indian Navy. In any case, the Naval Operations were and are always complicated, with or without nuclear submarines to counter.

Presence of Kra canal may have some tactical realignment requirement, however, we may safely conclude that there would be no significant impact of the Kra Canal as and when it gets constructed. 

Read about financial impact of Kar canal on Malacca Strait nations here - https://harshad-datar.blogspot.com/2019/03/strategic-impact-of-kra-canal-on-india_7.html?m=1

---

[1] https://www.iims.org.uk/kra-canal-project/

[2] https://www.asiasentinel.com/econ-business/thailand-kra-canal-economic-geopolitical-implications/ an article by -  Pithaya Pookaman