Strategic Impact of Kra Canal – Will there be a Financial Impact on Malacca Strait Nations

I am back again on the topic of the Kra Canal but with a different perspective. 

When I placed the link on the closed group of Brother and sisters at Arms, a question was asked to me by Ajit about the financial impact of Kra canal on Malaca Strait. That got me thinking. The outcome of that is this blog post.

Financial implications are on both sides, for Thailand (and for China) and for nations of Strait of Malacca. As brought out in the article, this canal is going to be narrow compared to Malacca. Its throughput rate or rate of the number of ships passing through it is likely to be much smaller than strait of Malacca. Another factor is, Malaca at present has free shipping (means a ship can transit whenever she wants, though there is a traffic separation scheme (TSS) to keep inbound and outbound ships away from each other, something similar to road dividers albeit invisible) while Kra is likely to have regulated on way traffic (as has been stated in the article, unlike Suez canal that has a lake in the middle (Great Bitter Lake) to hold one convey halfway in the journey and allow the convoy coming from another side to pass).

Suffice to say, it will have some impact on Malacca Strait traffic and hence on the economy of the Malacca strait nations. It is difficult to predict the extent of it at this moment. Clarity can only emerge if and when the canal is operational. It may so happen that Chinese may keep their hegemony on Kra and use it for their shipping (against International laws governing Maritime shipping as they show scant regards to these laws anyway). In such a situation, things would be different.

Yet another factor is, Malacca is expected to be saturated by 2024 and Malacca Strait Nations may not mind creation of alternate route to Malacca for two reasons, firstly Malacca by then would not be in a position to let any more ships pass through it (subject to this prediction be accurate and world shipping maintaining its growth) hence nations of Malacca strait may look at Kra Canal kindly. Secondly, it is evident that given its expected width and depth of this canal as also expected to save of nautical miles viz a viz Malacca Strait, it can become a younger cousin to Malacca and can not surpass it.

I welcome intellectual discussions and all comments on this and the original post. The link to the original post is here 

- https://harshad-datar.blogspot.com/2019/03/strategic-impact-of-kra-canal-on-india.html